A developing 2026–27 El Niño could place fire and rescue services across the Americas under significant pressure, with the International Association of Fire and Rescue Services warning of increased risks from extreme heat, drought, flooding, landslides and severe storms.
The report says the event is strengthening rapidly and may become one of the most intense El Niño episodes in the modern record. NOAA is forecasting a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27.
For fire departments, the key concern is not a single hazard but the possibility of overlapping emergencies. Hotter and drier conditions could lengthen wildfire seasons in western North America and parts of South America, while El Niño-linked rainfall may increase the risk of floods, landslides and post-fire debris flows in other areas.
In North America, the southern United States — including California and parts of the Southwest — may face a higher likelihood of heavy winter rainfall, urban flooding, coastal erosion and damaging storm systems. Burn-scarred terrain could be especially vulnerable, with mudslides and debris flows adding to emergency response demands.
Elsewhere in North America, impacts are expected to be less uniform. Northern U.S. states and Canada may see warmer winter conditions in some regions, but the report cautions against assuming a simple continent-wide forecast for drought, snowpack or wildfire activity.
Central America and the Caribbean could experience below-normal rainfall, increasing pressure on drinking-water supplies, agriculture, hydropower production, river transport and food security. Prolonged drought may also raise wildfire danger where vegetation dries and ignition sources are present.
In South America, the report highlights a split risk picture. Pacific coastal areas, including parts of Peru, could see increased heavy rainfall, flash flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage, while other regions may face drought and water shortages.
The association also notes that El Niño is occurring against a backdrop of higher global temperatures and warmer oceans, which can intensify the consequences of heat, drought and heavy rainfall. It stresses, however, that local weather patterns will still determine the exact timing, location and severity of impacts.
For fire and rescue leaders across the Americas, the message is to prepare early for multi-hazard response: wildfire readiness, flood rescue capability, heat-stress protection for crews, interagency coordination and planning for rapid shifts between drought and intense rainfall.
